VotemosCR v2018

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VotemosCR v2018
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¿Cambiará mucho la intención de voto a lo largo de la campaña 2018?

En la elección de 2014 la intención de voto de los costarricenses fue muy cambiante. La mayoría de los ciudadanos no sabía por quién votar o cambió de partido varias veces. En aquella oportunidad no hubo un claro ganador a lo largo de toda la campaña. De repente un candidato subía y luego bajaba; luego le tocaba el turno a otro y así hasta que finalmente la mayoría se decantó, en segunda ronda, por uno.

El gráfico muestra el comportamiento de 150 individuos, representados cada uno por una bola. Los desplazamientos reflejan la inestabilidad y los cambios de preferencia a lo largo de cinco momentos durante de la campaña: al inicio en octubre de 2013, en noviembre, en diciembre, en enero y luego de las elecciones de febrero de 2014.

Las tonalidades de cada bola representan los colores de los partidos (PLN-verde; FA-negro; PAC-amarillo; PUSC-azul; ML-rojo; Otros partidos-rosado; Indecisos-gris) que dijo apoyar en octubre, de manera que, cuando un individuo modificó su preferencia, cambió su posición en la red y se alineó junto a la nueva agrupación que dijo respaldar. El color de la bola no cambia para comparar la preferencia en el momento inicial y la ubicación en los distintos momentos.

¿Se repetirá este escenario en 2018? todo hacer pensar que la intención de voto en 2018 será igual o incluso más volátil que en 2014.

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Ronald Alfaro Redondo